I Feel a “Draft” in Here - Part 4
Needless, senseless, tragic. Some of the words that best describe my feelings regarding the passing of Sean Taylor. We all only know too well the emotions of the Washington Redskins and their fans at this moment with our own loss of Darrent Williams. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family, friends and teammates.
And now, Maurice Clarett. Clarett’s much maligned career at Ohio State has been well documented and I won’t go there, only to state that we were fully aware of what had transpired over his brief stint with the Buckeyes. What I will say is that this organization knows RB’s and has proven that enough without having to be questioned on the ability to do so.
Clarett had burst on the scene in ‘02 as a 1st team All-Big 10 selection and Freshman of the Year, while helping the Buckeyes to a National Championship win over Miami. He had 1,237 yards rushing, averaged 5.6 yds per carry and he tallied 16 TDs on the ground. He caught 12 balls for 104 yards and 2 scores to supplement his rushing statistics. He had the size, vision, instincts and patience that had added up to success for others in our system. The staff sat down with him at the Combine and listened to his explanations regarding his past, as well as sought personal input from many who had dealt with Maurice, not only at OSU but in high school as well. I think we all found him to be engaging, intelligent and contrite, while fully aware that there were character issues that would have to be handled correctly in order to maximize his potential. However, we did not leave Indy with the sole intent of taking Maurice Clarett.
Denver was faced with selecting from the last position in the 3rd round (#101), awarded as a compensatory pick from the NFL and therefore not to be traded. Not scheduled to pick again until the 6th, we felt that this would be a good place to grab someone on our board that had slipped for whatever reason (medical, character, measurables, etc…). The same philosophy used in the pursuit of Marcus Thomas (DT, Florida) this past draft. There were a few players that were deemed “clean” to take at that selection, but they had already fallen off the board prior to the end of the round.
Two that we felt certainly had the physical ability, but anchored with side problems, were Maurice and Chris Canty (DE, Virginia) of the Cowboys. Canty had suffered an offseason eye injury (detached retina) that had not yet been cleared by our doctors. Clarett seemed young, hungry and ready to make up ground with a run-oriented team. The type of player you could take time to develop and on top of that, his agents were willing to negotiate a deal that would be incentive laden and have no signing bonus.
There was considerable discussion over the course of our five minutes, but ultimately we felt the upside to be bigger than any negatives that might come with the pick (fully aware of boom or bust). That’s really what the draft is all about, weighing the positive and negative aspects of a player’s ability to eventually reach his full potential. It was all there for the taking. A tremendous opportunity that he, and only he, chose not to seize.
As I look at who we passed at the position, the only player that jumps out on the second day is Marion Barber III. Barber has shown productive ability with the Cowboys for sure, but was laden with his own past physical problems and deemed too high a medical risk (longevity issues) for us to take at the time. And yes, we were fully aware of his Minnesota background. So much so that Coach Shanahan had coached his father for the Gophers in ‘79.
There are a number of RB’s still active in the League from the ‘05 draft, including Brandon Jacobs (NYG) and Darren Sproles (San Diego), neither of which met the past profile for what we look for at the position. Hindsight certainly is 20/20. But I’m not sure that I “see” a single player picked between our selection of Clarett and our next selection of Chris Myers (current OC starter) in the 6th round that would have made much of a major difference at this point in our ‘07 season.
Many of you have brought up (on multiple occasions) the displeasure of “misses” on players drafted on the second day. Did you know that there are currently more college free agents active in the NFL than the combined total of all 5th, 6th and 7th round selections of the NFL draft and that those players on average have a higher playtime percentage than their counterparts in those three rounds?
There are certainly many other avenues to acquire talent and that’s the direction I’ll be headed, but I think I’ll touch a bit on my own philosophy and overall observations of the draft in my next entry.
P.S. - Based on the average of eleven mock draft sources, Tim Crowder was a projected 2nd round, 60th pick. But who’s counting?
November 27th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Jim-
Thanks so much for this blog. It is GOLD for draftniks like myself.
Quick question…which player do you feel that your pre-draft evaluation was most correct about how the player’s career turned out, and which was the most incorrect and why? Please don’t feel like you have to limit yout answer to just the Broncos.
Also, please hire me. Seriously.
Thanks again!
Ryan Scott
rvs_7@yahoo.com
November 27th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Wonderful blog. I read every single blog you post and as a fan I really enjoy reading something from the General Manager of my favorite football team. As for Clarett I was rooting for him to have sucess but it just didnt work out. Sometimes picks dont work out. Even the number 1 overall so its all good.
My question is can you reveal what positions or even players that you and the scouts are targeting for the draft in 2008? If its to much of a secret and to classified then I understand. We dont need any teams stealing our ideas.
November 27th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I’m loving all the draft insight and I am eager to hear what your (and thus our organization’s) overarching philosophy towards building through the draft. However, my head is already swimming with questions about other aspects of our team building, so I may as well start getting them down.
The first one is: What is Denver’s status as far as signing free-agents, i.e. is it more difficult to draw players here as a location or organization? Is it trending one way or another? Lots of fans dread the idea of going to the playoffs only to lose in the first rd (ala Chefs), but do you think that making the playoffs an almost annual affair in Denver might encourage a player to want to come here? Are there any particular postions in Denver that attract more FA interest, or are more likely to be turned down by prospective FAs? And what is your experience with players signing elsewhere after a Championship (AFC or SB) year? What are these types of players looking for?
Again thank you for starting this blog!
www.MileHighReport.com
November 27th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Mr. Sundquits, you are now officially a blogging machine
While I was interested in reading about Clarett, I didn’t really get too worked up about selecting him for some reason. I guess it was pretty clear that he ran himself out of town. Really, he had the best possible landing spot here in Denver and time to mature without the pressure to produce in the spotlight. He screwed that up. I have no doubt he could have been a major force in the NFL. Sometimes people dont realize they get in their own way or can be their own worst enemy.
I still see issues with the drafts from 1999-2004. It seems like the retention rate of players from those drafts, let alone productive players is extremely low.
What is the average retention rate for players across the NFL?
Traditionally Denver works its draftees in slowly. It seems like other teams have had a shift in that philosophy and go the “baptism by fire route.” San Diego had 2 or 3 rookies on their O line during their 14-2 run. It was supposed to be their weakness and it turned out to be a strength. Can we expect to see players contributing sooner?
Can’t Wait!
Joe Hildebrand
November 27th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Clarett ran a 4.72 and a 4.82 in the 40 yard dash at the combine. That doesn’t exactly scream “physical ability” to me.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
“But I’m not sure that I “see” a single player picked between our selection of Clarett and our next selection of Chris Myers (current OC starter) in the 6th round that would have made much of a major difference at this point in our ‘07 season.”
Kerry Rhodes, one of the best safeties in the NFL, wants you to know that he’s very offended by this remark. jk
But I won’t get on you too hard for that one. I follow the draft quite vigorously, and a ton of the players I love never pan out, and even more that I dislike turn into solid players.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:54 pm
Your right hindsight is 20/20. I was really actually pretty happy with the pick. The guy had a Adrian Peterson type freshman year. yeah he had his downs to. and at the time i thought to that he had more ups then downs. I cant remember the whole situation but i remember he wanted to enter the NFL early(which happens every year) Some of his coaches were not very happy and the situation blew up in his face. it got drug through the mud. the only thing i was really dissapointed with is that for wanting to play in the NFL so bad he didnt say so with his conditioning and prepping.
Ted PLEASE keep at all costs Dumervil, Marshall, and Scheffler.
Also looks like you guys made a good cut with Rice. I think mallard and Peterson are playing lights out for there value.
Remember Character this year PLEASE.
November 28th, 2007 at 12:25 am
Ted I really appreciate your blog. You remind me that most things in life are complicated and rarely as simple as 20/20 hindsight would have me remember. I have always been glad that only a few people see the work I do and it’s not up for public scrutiny. The passing of Sean Taylor is such a tragic event and reminds me of the pain our community went through less than a year ago. Like most deep bruises the pain is still there when touched. So thank you for taking the time to write this blog and I look forward to your future works. Good luck in Oakland and hope to see you after KC…Pola
November 28th, 2007 at 12:53 am
Ted,
We were a Dline away from being great on D, under coyer. You guys switched the system, brought in players that are not great fits for the system. And as i see it its gonna be a couple more years before we get to that sort of leval with Bates. What gives. the only thing i hated in coyers system. that we are still seeing is that bend but dont break philosphy.
How is Jarvis doing could you mange to give us a health update.
November 28th, 2007 at 1:02 am
Ted, How did you come to the decsion of drafting BRANDON MARSHALL, when he only had one real year at WR, and a good All star game? ( i forget what one it was but Im sure it wasnt the Sr. Bowl)
November 28th, 2007 at 1:37 am
I never thought I would question a running back pick (My record on these boards will prove that) but, regardless of what you say, I see this pick in a different light. I believe that the personal relationship that Maurice had with one of the coaches played a major part in this, and, as Bill Parcells puts it, “that’s not a bad thing, it’s a good thing”, the lesson wasn’t in the pick, the lesson was that the organization listens and puts value in the opinion of others.
This blog further proves that you listen, I appreciate it greatly.
My next concern is a biggie and not in the scope of your blog, but I hope you will listen.
It would be nice to know that the Bronco’s have patched things up with Al Wilson and Jake Plummer, they were the leaders of our offense and defense, the impression we have is that they were tossed aside and that doesn’t sit well with most of us. Has Pat, or Mike, or you ever went to their home after the break up and spoke with them ? Are their any plans for them to assist in coaching ? I understand that it’s a sport, I understand that it’s a business, but, in a fans mind it is very personal, when a player gives all that he can, I want him treated right, I want him to know that we are his family and this is his home, the support never leaves. I want to see alumni on the sidelines and I want to give them the cheer they deserve, doing the right thing is much tougher than doing the wrong thing, but, having pride when you look in the mirror is priceless.
November 28th, 2007 at 1:42 am
One more thought on what I said earlier.
Sometimes, when 60,000 fans leave a game…..it had just as much to do with what is going on “off” the field as it did with what was going on “on” the field.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:50 am
Ted,
1. I see that Indy released Simeon Rice last night…wow, 2 wks and done! Oh well, I guess there’s some poetic justice in there somewhere…right?
2. What’ all the talk about Javon Walker lately and him not being signed for next year due to age ad health? Is that true. I know we seemingly have a #1 in Marshall, but is Javon that badly hurt, and is surgery a sure thing? Dont we need a core of WR’s like Walker,Stokely,Marshall (all healthy)Im curious?
Thanks for your blogs, please respond as soon as you can…ty
November 28th, 2007 at 9:21 am
Unfortunately I like Javon also but is it really worth taking that chance again next year that he gets hurt on the knee again after his surgery 2-3 years ago and him being out for another 7-10 wks in another season. I think he had his shot and he is good, but is a liability. We need to get younger here with another wr for Jay to keep working with. We have leadership and durability in a slot receiver in Stockley who was hurt and has shown his toughness going across the middle like he does and he is there week in and week out.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:16 am
I would like to know if Clarrett’s willingness to sign a 100% incentive based contract, with little or no signing bonus had anything to do with the pick as well.
It was well known that Broncos were still trying to get “healthyER” in the salary cap at the time and I wonder if this had any influence to make the risk easier.
I would love to know the truth, because it makes perfect sense to me.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:38 am
The Sean Taylor MURDER is a ridiculous tragedy. Losing a young man over the theft of STUFF is incomprehensible. People, let them take YOUR STUFF. protect yourself and your families.
TED, I wouldd like to make a statement and hopefully get your response. I see a young, talented, offense full of players who can be as good as anyone out there right now. I see a defense that is being built BACKWARDS. CB’s dont make a D-line better. If that was true we’d have the best D-line in the league. Defensive line/pressure makes CB’s and DB’s better.
Stopping the run to create 2nd and 3rd and long situations limit routes, create pressure and cause INT’s and make Pass defense easier. Why are we building our defense backwards? I love the players names. I loved the Champ Bailey aquisition. BUT it flouts ALL KNOWN ideology to NOT build a defense from the LINE back. Why are we re-inventing the wheel.
There are 31 other teams who dont have MR Bailey and MR Bly as their CB’s and most of them, a high number of them are playing better defense than we are. Yes I know the names Elvis, TIM and Marcus, Antwon. I have high hopes for Jarvis. I know Ekubans loss was bigger than most realize.
But the philosophy, not the talent is what I am focusing on.
I
November 28th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
I have a quick question. After hearing the Kyle Johnson was brought back for a week I remembered that Chad Mustard was signed and released and signed multiple times. How does that work with the NFL? Is there a any type of limits on signing and releases? When you have a year with so many injuries does that change the number?
November 28th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Sometimes draft choices are busts, but the seemingly greatest bust in Bronco history was our 1988 1st rounder Ted Gregory, whose “measurables” as a nose tackle were misrepresented to Joel Collier by a friend at Syracuse. He came to camp too small for the position and was traded straight up for the New Orleans Saints bust, Shawn Knight. Neither made it. Collier was fired for failing to check out the draft recommendation. The travesty was that Dan Reeves passed on Thurman Thomas because of “character” issues and he went to Buffalo in the second round. Ever wonder what Mr. Elway could have done with this Hall of Fame back from the fall of 1988 til whenever? Staggering to think.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
Ted, this is really great info. Thanks for the blogs.
November 28th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
What poor medical history did Barber have? He took a redshirt in 2002 because of a hamstring injury, but I still don’t see how that shows he wasn’t worth the risk? Denver has taken a myriad of players who have been injured and have a long line of issues. I don’t see how that exception can be made at that pick, but not for picks for players with injuries who were drafted even higher.
Interesting nonetheless.
Thanks.
November 28th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
WHY SAM ADAMS IN DENVER? IS SLOW AND OLD
November 28th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
Solid explanation on Clarett, though my being in Ohio probably leaves me a little close to the situation. There is no doubt he’s a good kid, but easily, VERY EASILY, swayed down the wrong path. The one thing he didn’t do was take responsibility, partly because he grew up a football god in Youngstown where any sprinkle of sunshine is grasped and held onto. Everything was always taken care of for M.C., so any time there was some kind of trouble he avoided punishment becuse he was a great football player.
To be completely honest, when the pick was made I was excited. The thought of Maurice running the ball for the Orange and Blue excited me, and I really believed if any team was equipped to help him it was the Broncos and their history of running back success. The one thing M.C. didn;t have, and there is no real guage or test for it, is heart.
Looking forward to the next entry and the continuing education we are all receiving!
-TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
milehighreport@gmail.com
November 29th, 2007 at 8:27 am
The clarett pick was interesting : had it work , it would have been a genious move , unfortunatly …i think sometimes you have to gamble , if you lose , you always have other draf selection . Otherwise , the recent fee agent or trade seemed to have poorly succeed as a whole ( exept Champ ) and i think it’s the main reason of our struggles this year , it outweigh the draft choices .
November 29th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
I agree with others in the fact that you are taking time to address fans in this blog. It is a bold move!
I’d like to ask a few questions.
What is the status and probability of productive return next season by Nalen and Hamilton?
What is your general outlook on moves to be made, or efforts to draft for defense, considering Bate’s system, and the fit or production/potential of current personel?
November 30th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
i had no problem with the Clarett pick and undestood if he could have pulled his head out he may be starting for the broncos today.
i think the bronco staff is as good as any in the league at evaluting talent and heart of players in the draft or as free agents. after ted’s statement about the sucess of free agents in the nfl it really makes me scratch my head about all the pricey free agent pick ups. most teams release them for more than one reason and few work out like john lynch.
why not pick up a guy who has heart, desire and a real love for the game?