I Feel a “Draft” in Here - Part 2
Before I continue with some more draft thoughts, I wanted to point out a few things from some of your responses to my first posting.
References to Mel Kiper or any other national publication’s projection of a draft choice is only to emphasize what the prevailing thoughts were at the time on a player. Never have the Denver Broncos used one of these prognosticators to select a draft choice. It’s from these same sources that we catch the most criticism and yet many seem to forget what their own viewpoints were at the time.
Next, I greatly appreciate the feedback, both positive and negative, from the fans. I expect and accept both. My goal is to provide you with a “method behind the madness” that you sometimes don’t get from other sources.
Finally, there are a number of excellent points and details that many of you have brought to attention and I’ll do my best to incorporate some of my own personal thoughts regarding these as I continue to write on various subjects.
Willie Middlebrooks, 2001’s first round pick (#24), was a former 1st team Big-10 selection that came out early as a junior. At almost 6’2” and 200 lbs., Willie was easily a projected first round pick by Kiper, Fox Sports and Ourlads. He was the former player of then Bronco DB’s coach David Gibbs at the University of Minnesota. Big, strong and schooled in the technique of press coverage, Middlebrooks was to be the bookend with O’Neal in replacing an aged secondary. His season-ending ankle fracture was deemed not to be significant enough to pass him in the draft, though ultimately it did affect his play. Only 7 DC’s are still active from the ’01 draft, with just one remaining on his original squad.
Paul Toviessi followed at the 51st pick. Thought to be a reach by most, Toviessi recorded 10.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss his final two seasons at Marshall. Paul’s measurables for the position were equitable to those of Patrick Kearney of Seattle; 6′6″ 260lbs, 4.69 speed and 35″+ arms. Big, long, powerful and explosive, Toviessi had the sort of upside that was seen in Jason Taylor coming out of the same collegiate conference. Taylor was the 3rd round selection of MIAMI in ‘97 and many were left scratching their heads regarding the Dolphin’s “reach” at the time.
Ultimately it was medical issues (knees) and not ability that sidelined Toviessi’s career. Only 5 active DE’s remain from the ’01 draft selected on the south side of Toviessi, two of which were with Denver; Reggie Hayward and Patrick Chukwurah.
Middlebrooks and Toviessi didn’t bring stability to their respective positions for the Broncos in 2007, but neither have 34 other DC’s and DE’s subsequently drafted in ‘01 for their teams.
The 2001 draft sent up “red flags and rockets” regarding medical evaluations on incoming prospects. We have since revised the manner in which we medically “grade” the draft and I feel have a better system that projects the long-term status of player’s with injury issues out of college.
Searching for a deep threat to complement Smith and McCaffrey, we turned to the islands where Ashley Lelie had lit up college football for 3 straight seasons in Hawaii’s spread option attack. Lelie had averaged 20.4 yds per catch and tallied 19 TD’s his junior season. Over those 3 years he averaged 17.2 yds per catch. At his private workout for the scouts, Lelie ran a 4.31 40 yd dash. TSN, PFW, Kiper, Sports Illustrated (SI), Fox Sports and CBS Sportsline all had Lelie penciled in for the first round. Furthermore, Denver was close to the Warrior coaching staff that had signficant NFL experience. Ashley would go on to start 40 games for the Broncos, including the AFC championship along side Rod Smith in ’05. But thereafter he demanded to be traded (for his own stated reasons) in the spring prior of the ’06 season. Lelie eventually was dealt for a third-round pick used to select OT Ryan Harris (Notre Dame) in the ’07 draft, a player we feel has tremendous potential as a future starter.
That said, Lelie has led the NFL in receiving average (2002-2007) with 17.4 yds per catch. He is tied for 12th over the same time period with 48 catches of 25+ yds or more. I’d say he lived up to his deep threat billing, but Lelie’s absence takes nothing away from our current WR unit with the likes of Javon Walker, Brandon Marshall and Brandon Stokley.
The “hit or miss” on any of these three players proves insignificant to the current roster, and the “cause and effect” approach to these selections seems not apply to our record at the moment.
I look forward to my next entry.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:19 pm
I will add my vote to what a great thing it is that you are doing here, Mr. Sundquist. Personally I would like to believe that it is the stratospheric leap forward in the quality of the blogging, posting and commenting that is coming to surround the Broncos and their fanatics, that has led you to throw your hat in the blogging ring. Your insight is greatly appreciated in this arena, but beware: we fanatics are VERY hungry, and these first few fantastic posts of yours are making us even more ravenous for info!
Looking forward to your next entries!
November 21st, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Ted,
Are there any good middle linebackers that we may be looking to get this coming draft?
November 21st, 2007 at 2:25 pm
Mr Sundquist,
Great entry. Next up, Georgina Foster and “Grey Goose” Clarett.
November 21st, 2007 at 2:35 pm
something I would be interested in hearing about, would be if you classify players as “raw” in that they are in particular need of NFL level coaching, and if that affects where you grade them. Also, under the same thought would be instances of “monster athletes”, guys who are particularly fast or particularly strong or particularly big (think DT in the upcoming draft) and whether those kind of qualities could raise or lower a prospect in your eyes when compared to a player whom you might evaluate as being able to get his head into the game (ala Selvin Young, to the extent that you guys could tell).
November 21st, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Mr Sunquist I think you are an exelant GM and I admire you for how good you do in the middle rounds! Dumervil, the late D-Will, Foxworth, & Brandon Marshal were all steals where we got them, and moving up to get Cutler should allow you to keep the GM job forever! But I am getting worried about our safety’s, it seems like Foxworth is having to move to safety more and more and he is just too small to stay at that position. I hope next year we can address this position early in the draft. There is a kid from LSU named Steltz that is wreaking havoc on the SEC and I would love to see him as a Bronco next year if we are in the position to get him… Just a thought. Keep up the great work! Oh and please get Boss Bailey in Denver next year!
November 21st, 2007 at 2:50 pm
I completely understand how hindsight is 20/20 and we all complain about who we could have selected, I as a fan like the sexy picks and not the “he has potential” picks.
The Foster draft (2003), which produces no help tot he 2007 team gives fans something to grumble about, especiall when a rookie is not immediately productive. To that I still question moving UP to get Moss, I think that my expectations of a 1st rounderare higher than other and do hope he pans out but with great picks like Cutler, Al, D.J being made I expected more.
It is understandable that not every 1st round pick is going to rock and be a game breaker but as a fan I like the direction of the team, picks I may hate but your the brass, keep it up.
I just hope James Hardy and Jonathan Stewart are on our hit list if they come out as a fan I link their style of play to the DB offense but hey Im not a DB coach.
November 21st, 2007 at 4:07 pm
Ted, good job, fans really appreciate your involvement with blogging. Very interesting to see what went into the decision making process for those drafts.
Would love to see an entry explaining the decision making process that has led to so many successful undrafted free agents making the team and making contributions (Lepsis, Pears, Sapp, Young, Hall, etc).
November 21st, 2007 at 4:22 pm
please get a defensive lineman!free agency or what ever haynesworth will be expensive so try someone else.Do u prefer a high draft pick or lots of little ones?
November 21st, 2007 at 5:12 pm
Ted , you have been doing a fantastic job.
I love how our young defensive line is looking. Elvis Dumervil Tim Crowder and Marcus Thomas are looking very good. I hope Jarvis Moss will do good next season I mean if we can put him in on passing situations next season watch out with him and Elvis.
Do I need to comment on Champ Dre’ and Lynch ? I will… THE BEST. A very underrated part of this team is Domonique Foxworth. He is so versitile and if not the best a top 5 nickleback in the entire league. Foxy is also a great saftey. If Lynch isn’t back next season I would put him there at saftey and put paymah in the slot if Karl keeps going at this rate.Hamza Abdullah is really stepping it up . He is a freak he has all the tools to be a great saftey in this league.
At LB we have been improving week by week and I am feeling alot more comfortable with D.J. and Nate Webster. Ian Gold has had big games these past two weeks and is a great OLB its funny that he is faster than some safteys as is D.J.
WRs. Wow Lets re-sign Stokely next year and keep Brandon “the beast” Marshall for a long time. Javon is coming back and we will have a top 5 WR core to go along with a great young QB in Jay.
TE- I really like Tony Scheffler and Jay does too lol. He is a great target for Jay and with Graham blocking and recieving I love the combo.
O-Line RB and QB. We are kkeping Jay we always have a great runningback and we produce great lineman.
Draft. BIG DT who can move . A offensive guard to go along with Kuper Myers (if he is our center in the future) Pears and Harris. That is after Nalen Lepsis and Hamilton are retired or traded of course.KR/PR. I know Glenn had that TD but that is one game. I would love to see us bring in Ellis Hobbs if the Pats don’t resign him he is a threat on speacial teams and could be our nickle. I know I said Karl is good because he is but Ellis is on a different level. Sign or trade for a young BIG DT instead of drafting one. I don’t think we have many wholes but if we do you guys will fix it.
If not a player I would love to be a GM of a NFL team so those are my outlooks. I need to look at it more I kind of rushed plus we are still in the middle of the season.I would like to thank you for making this blog.
All Ready !!!
November 21st, 2007 at 5:17 pm
I forgot to mention please sign Boss Bailey.Lol I love Webster but Boss would fit into our D better in my opinion.
November 21st, 2007 at 6:39 pm
A perfect choice in players for part 2 of this series….
To be frank, the Middlebrooks selection, as well as the Toviessi pick that followed were easily the low point of recent draft history. Not because of what the end result was, but because of the type of players they were at the time…..
Both had serious injury concerns coming out of college, and if I remember correctly, Middlebrooks missed most, of not all, of his final season at Minnesota. While the injury was not considered serious at the time, I think it is safe to say that any injury involving the feet/legs of a skill position player, in this case a DB, is huge reason for concern, especially in the first round when there are other options available.
As for Toviessi, h fits right in with my “big-time school, big-time game” theory. Coming out of Marshall, Toviessi’s numbers were decent, and he did have decent size. The comparison you make is to Jason Taylor, which is ironic since I was at the University of Akron at the same time as Taylor and watched him play. The big difference between the two was Taylor, when put on the same field with talented defender around him, stole the show at the Senior Bowl. The big questions was where the heck to play him because it was thought he was too small to be an end or linebacker. Taylor, when given a chance to succeed, did. Toviessi was simply a nice player who the Broncos hoped would turn into something.
Before we go any further, I just want to say that this isn’t a bashing session, and the team’s success speaks for itself. I am just pointing out areas where I see things a bit differently. There is no doubt that ever pick was made with the proper due-diligence behind it, and, let’s face it, sometimes the other guy will pull a straight-flush on the river.
The one pick I would love to hear more about is Clarett. Not because of all the haters out there, but because I am an Ohio guy and Clarett is simply a sad, sad story to me. I know people who knew him personally, and he is a good guy at heart.
Thanks again, and feel free to stop by the MHR anytime…The Bronco-Banter never stops and is colored beautifully in Orange and Blue glasses!
-TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
November 21st, 2007 at 6:50 pm
I do want to say one other thing….
You mention that “The “hit or miss” on any of these three players proves insignificant to the current roster, and the “cause and effect” approach to these selections seems not apply to our record at the moment.”
I disagree, ony to the point that anytime a team misses on a player, the time used to develop that talent goes to waste and the team is left to try and pick up the pieces. That can usually be done one of two ways - Free Agency or Trade - both of which have a bigger impact on the salary cap than the actual pick would should he work out.
Use Lelie for example. As you mentioned, Lelie was a starting WR for the Broncos for 4 seasons before asking out. You trade him to the Falcons, for a 3rd round pick(Ryan Harris) who has the potential to be a starter. Now we head back to square one a bit as far as developing a player.
We also have to fill the hole at WR left by Lelie, meaning we can go one of two ways - FA or Trade. We decide to go the trade route, sending a 2nd rounder to GB for Javon Walker, who was ironically picked right after Lelie in the same draft.
While the law of diminishing returns says it isn’t this simple, I’ll break it down as follows — We use a 1st rounder on Lelie, trade him for a 3rd rounder, while trading a 2nd round pick to acquire his replacement, someone we could have drafted in the first place, but now has injury concerns(though I would ave done the exact same thing, and hope that Walker can come back).
Now we need to take the time to develop Harris, and teach Walker the system, while rehabbing his knee at the same time(though he was awesome in 06, while not at 100%). I firmly believe that has a direct impact on our success right now. Not because we would be better off with Lelie, but because the time we spent on trying to find his “heart” is gone forever, while the other teams in the AFC tha I spoke of in your last post are reaping the benefits of the guys drafted in 01 and 02 being in their professional prime.
I hope that makes sense and look forward to your next post!
TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
November 21st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
I’ll add to the above posts and say that though no pick is made in a vaccuum, by taking the best talent available, you can in some ways decrease the downside risk. What is the organization’s attitude towards the “best player” on the board mantra? Is it a consideration, or not even in your warroom lexicon?
Also, for a guy like Lelie, did you feel like his career would be as a second WR to Smith? There is no doubt he produced, though what all us broncomaniacs were waiting for was for him to supplant Rod as the #1, and he never even came close to doing that, though credit goes to Smith for not dropping off until his hip injury…
http://www.milehighreport.com
November 21st, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Ted I would have to say as someone who hopes to get into the football business this is very interesting to me. I find it really neat that you are taking the time to do this for us fans and really do appreciate it.
I know you can’t disclose too much, but was wondering how much stock you put into a players measureables and how much into his production?
Also…. and this may seem like a strange question but there are some arguments on the boards about how much say you and Shanny share on picks and moves in free agency.
Lastly: How uncomfortable did you feel when Jay Cutler was drafted? It was reported on various articles that the Bronco’s did not have any sort of contact with him and went off Fisher of the Titans recomendation? I just found that kind of different and was curious how much truth and speculation was to that and how you felt about it.
November 21st, 2007 at 9:41 pm
Ted Please this year go after Production over potential. And please place a high emphasis on Quality guys. name drop frank okam..:)
November 21st, 2007 at 9:53 pm
Draft Josh Barrett. Period.
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:01 am
First, I want to say thanks to Mr. Sundquist for taking his time to address the fans with this information. I can’t believe an NFL General Manager is actually attempting to explain to fans the thought process behind some of the personnel decisions, good or bad, that have been made over the past several years.
Second, its not like we are hearing from the GM of the Cards or Lions here … the success we are spoiled with is obvious, since the majority of the comments I have read pertaining to these blogs have been complaints about a few misses on a successful team. I don’t remember entering a season thinking “this is not going to be pretty” (okay, maybe the Greise era, lol). Imagine if our team were a traditional basement dweller, and some of the teams mistakes actually set us back for years rather than failed to add depth or fill a potential need immediately.
Every team in this league has missed on high draft picks, and the talent we have on our roster is above average. I try to have faith in the work the office does, and even though it is tough to support these picks some times (I took some serious heat on numerous draft days … Middlebrooks, Foster, etc.) with my friends who are fans of different teams, none of them can hold a candle to our success over the past 20 years or so. Only Pats Fans (who are becoming quite obnoxious now) can even enter the conversation, and that is only over the past 5 years now.
National media (and local as well) were all over us this year, and the changes are starting to look pretty good now in my opinion. We were ravaged by injuries (as all teams are this time of year) and changing defensive philosophies, and it was the end of the world because we were not blowing people away. There were struggles, but because of the state of the division, we are in a great position to make a late season run now, and be a contender in January, albeit the hard way through other tough cities.
I hate losing as much as anyone, but I believe year in and year out that we will have a good product on the field based on the decisions made by the front office. I even have myself convinced that we match up with the Pats perfectly, and could knock them down any day of the week. Our past few years of trying to build a team to beat the Colts, while still maintaining our bread and butter (running game, consistent passing game, bend but don’t break D) has us in a good position to play with anyone. Learning a new D philosophy on the fly is a risk, and a challenge, but we are improving each week.
DJ is starting to play exceptionally, the pass rush is improving (Crowder may be a monster with some more experience, Moss showed flashes in limited time, and Dumervil is a beast in only year two). The secondary is aggressive, and stacked with talent. Also, on O, tell me if you rather have Young or Leinart over Jay right now or for our future?
It is also my opinion that our running game can get by with just about anybody, but when you put an elite back in the lineup, is when it becomes truly special (see Davis, Portis), which is why I think a reasonably high pick was worth giving Clarett a shot to turn his life around. He made decisions that cost him (and the team) this opportunity, but at least we gave it a shot!!
In closing, I feel the team does a good job with the draft, as inexact a science as it is. Misses have never cost us our consistent success, and having the courage to go against the grain and try new things is what the Broncos are all about. Let’s not forget our hits on draft day either … Al (good luck to him), DJ, Fox, Elvis, Jay, Brandon Marshall, Scheffler, O line, our future at the D line, etc. I think the future is bright as a Bronco fan, and the present is not all that bad either, despite what you read in the media and on some blogs or message boards.
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:49 am
How much did you really know about the severity of Willie and Paul’s respective injuries? These two guys had major injury concerns going into the draft. Did you and the rest of the gang have good reason to believe they wouldn’t carry over? I can understand choices like Nash, O’Neal, and Lelie because almost every draftnik thought they would be good pros, and they had no major red flags. Whereas Willie, Paul, and especially Clarrett had huge ones.
What made you guys think Clarett was going to be a good pro? Besides the fact that almost any RB can have success in Denver? There was a guy named Marion Barber III out of Minnesota that was still on the board who is now one of the best backup/short-yardage/goalline backs in the game. Did you guys even look his way? I would hope so, and believe so, considering Mike’s ties to the University of Minnesota.
P.S. Please draft Superman, Humpty Dumpty, and Chuck Norris next year.
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:50 am
in every draft there’s some bust , in every team in this league and on the other side , there’s some steal ( Brady , Smith , Davis …..) : the fact is : drafting is not an exact science , there’s some uncertainty . What i would point out is tis fact : Denver had one losing season the last ten or more years , it’s simply amazing regarding the other teams , the coaches and GM have certainly some things to do whith it ( and of course the fans ….. ) .Thanks Ted and bring us back to the SB .
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:06 am
Just onother thing more personnal : M Sundquist , you must have sweden roots , this country , i had the chance to visit it , is simply unforgettable .
November 22nd, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Please remember that at the time we drafted Lelie, we had Mcaffrey and Smith…..the team needed a stretch-the-field receiver
Lelie is a stretch the field receiver.
Times changed…..we hoped Lelie could become an all around receiver.
So, it didn’t work out
For all the naysayers, we wasted a draft pick, something to write about.
Common sense says
Not all receivers are cut from the same cloth, if you need a guy like Lelie, you go out and get a guy like Lelie, if circumstances change and you need a guy like Walker, you go out and get a guy like Walker.
Had the Bronco’s “not” made this move I would have flipped out.
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Ted Sundquist, how about some new away alts or maybe a new away uniform??
Check these out:
http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j169/pcola_playa82/DENbroncoswhiteorange.jpg
http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j169/pcola_playa82/DENbroncoswhiteblue.jpg
Please reply with your thoughts!
November 22nd, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Thank you for posting this Mr. Sundquist,
just wondering if you could give us a look at what went on behind the scenes on the Portis/Bailey trade, being such a major move for both teams?
Also Boss Bailey would look incredible in Blue and Orange, thanks for all the great work over the years.
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Ted,
I’m sure you already know this, and perhaps have envisioned him in orange and blue, but Arizona linebacker Spencer Larsen is a tackling machine, kind of like the Falcons’ Jessie Tuggle, I believe and his motor seems strong enough to serve an NFL defense well. I think he’d be great for us, but that’s not my decision. We’ll see how it goes this coming April.
November 22nd, 2007 at 11:22 pm
hi ted , just wanted to say that i thought the draft picks the last two years have been outstanding. i have , however really wondered about some of the free agent pickups. from what i’ve seen these guys cost a lot of cash-o-la and are as big or a bigger risk than keeping draft picks. whatever happened to building a team from within?
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I am sure that you have been assessing this years team and draft prospects. Also, I’m sure that you are not going to give up any information that would lead to clues about who you are thinking to draft this year. It is still early and i expect Denver to make it to the playoffs. I’m not really interested in past picks because it doesnt help us in the future to focus on the past.
Last years draft was plentiful of safeties. However, this years draft is not and most likely Phillups will be long gone by the time it’s our time to pick. Craig Sheltz is playing well though.
It is plentiful with defensive tackles, 5 of which could be taken in the first round the way things stand now, including Frank Okam who has been mentioned above and would seem to fit this system very well. And he is probably friends with some of our current players.
There also isn’t much to choose from as far as inside and outside linebackers are concerned. Kieth Rivers looks promising and Don Connors is consistant.
A return specialist/wide reciever may be important with the rash of injuries. Maybe Donnie Avery out of Houston.
Im sure injuries and playing of current players are going to have implications in the direction you are going to go as well as the outcome of the season. Just give me a little cookie to play with…please!
November 23rd, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Another good write-up Ted. You should do a Q and A answer session for one of your next blogs. Have us submit questions, and have you answer.
Feel free to hit up my blog regarding the Broncos and the draft in particular at http://broncosbeat.wordpress.com
Maybe it can give you some cool ideas.
November 23rd, 2007 at 5:15 pm
mr sundquist, i don’t know what round Jordan Dizon from Colorado will go in but I think you guys should draft him to take over the strong side linebacker, Dizon is a canidate for the Butkis award, but draft whoever you feel fits the teams needs the most but just a suggestion.
thanks
November 23rd, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Mr Sundquist:
The candid nature of your blogs is nice to hear not to mention appreciated. I am especially appreciative of your comments regarding the change the organization has made with regard to medically grading a prospect.
A point in your favor (and Shanny’s) that I feel could have been made would be Ashlie Lelie. His production since departing Denver has not been near what it was here. Clearly, Shanny can get the best out of players.
I would still love to hear about Terry Pierce and GEORGE FOSTER more than anybody! Even in Detroit, Foster is getting bullrushed and put on his back by younger, less experienced, weaker players.
Also, I like the teams recent drafts and or the approach that was taken. Specifically I liked the draft that brought us Darrent Williams (God rest his soul), Paymah, Abdullah, and I think Foxworth came from that draft too. I liked the same approach last year with the D-line. Is that something we can expect to see going forward? And can you comment on how easy or difficult a drafty day trade to move up (i.e. the Cutler move up) is?
Thanks again Mr Sundquist. GO BRONCOS!
November 23rd, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Another thought:
Going back to the 1998 draft the Broncos have drafted the following 11 receivers, all of which are no longer with the team! Most if not all made very minor contributions to the team.
Domenik Hixon, Charlie Adams, Triandos Luke, Darius Watts, Ashlie Lelie, Marcus Nash, Herb Haygood, Kevin Kasper, Muneer Moore, Travis McGriff, and Billy Miller.
Is our system so complex that it makes it hard for some of these guys? Can you talk a bit about what goes drafting Wide Receivers? Is it different than other positions? And why do you think Denver has not done so well with the receivers it has drafted?
It seems like some teams (Green Bay) hits jackpot with any WR they select and we have to go the free agent route. Or is Green Bay a system set up for WR’s like Denver supposedly can plug “anybody” in a half back and be successful?
Thanks again. GO BRONCOS!
November 29th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
First I’d like to say great job on the last draft-Crowder/Thomas/Moss-big upside on each! Its nice to see production that you hope you get out of the rookies.
Stokely is obviously the best slot reciever in the game! Great acquisition!
Although the line blocking this year hasn’t been superb, its been good. Myers/Kuper/Pears/Holland have been solid!!
In my opinion, Lelie was a good pick. I’m sure it was clear though, about his willingness to adhere to what you asked him to do for the Broncos.