I Feel a “Draft” in Here
Our recent roller coaster record, coupled with some of the struggles we’ve endured on defense seems to have brought out the strongest of naysayers concerning the Broncos and the annual college draft. National, local and even in-office critics say that our current plight is a direct result of our inability to evaluate and ultimately select young college talent. They point to the numerous misses, reeling off the names as if “on the clock” themselves, yet never providing the circumstances or thoughts surrounding a particular selection. If only it were as easy as choosing a QB, RB, 2 WR’s and a shutdown Defense. Now that would be a true “Fantasy” League!
Here are a few historical tidbits & subsequent facts to help fill in the gaps.
In 1998 coming off our Super Bowl win, we were awarded the distinction of selecting 30th (last) in the first round. Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey and Willie Green had been our 3 receivers and the staff felt the influx of a young player at the position would strengthen the unit overall. Marcus Nash had been a highly productive 3-year starter at the University of Tennessee. Peyton Manning’s go-to guy had the size, athletic ability and big-play production we were looking for at the position. He was the 2nd leading all-time receiver in Tennessee Vol’s history. Street & Smith’s had projected him a late first round pick. The Sporting News (TSN), Pro Football Weekly (PFW) and Mel Kiper all had Marcus as a solid to high second round pick. Since Denver wasn’t scheduled to select again until #61, we felt Nash wouldn’t be available & took him betting on the considerable upside. Last of the three receivers deemed worthy, the others were Randy Moss and Kevin Dyson (both selected prior to #30).
Subsequently there are only four receivers left on active rosters since the ’98 draft that were selected after Nash; Joe Jurevicius, Hines Ward, Tim Dwight and Jim Turner. Important to note, only Ward and Turner remain with their original teams. At the time, Ward was converting from QB, not a lock at WR and seen as a 3rd round pick. Jurevicius was more in the McCaffrey mold (whom we already had) and Dwight, though explosive as a returner, was undersized for our liking and considered a 3rd to 4th round pick.
Twenty-five other WR’s from the class of ’98 are no longer in the League. Many might argue how we could pass on such a “now” productive player as Hines Ward at the time, but I guess the same question should be asked of the other 61 picks that occurred prior to his selection as the last choice of the third round (#92).
Yet from ’98 -’07 Denver ranks 8th overall in gross receiving yards, 6th in TD receptions, 13th in total receptions & 9th in avg yards per reception. All while leading the NFL in rushing and finishing 5th in total offense. Somehow I don’t think the selection of Marcus Nash has crippled our passing game or our offense since 1998.
2000 saw Denver in need of a returner and a young corner prospect. Deltha O’Neal had been an explosive kickoff and punt returner for Cal in ’99. He recorded 9 interceptions that season and was selected a consensus first team All-American playing in the “pass happy” PAC-10. Clocked at 4.40 during his personal workout, Deltha had the arm length, ball skills and instincts the League was looking for. The Broncos had tied for 20th in interceptions (15) and were 25th in punt return average (7.2). Kiper projected him as a first round pick, along with TSN at the top of the second. Ray Crockett and Dale Carter had been the starters the year before and all the numbers pointed towards Deltha slotting nicely into our defensive secondary as a productive turnover and return specialist.
Only seven DC’s remain active from the ’00 draft and none are with their original teams. The first round has only five picks after our selection that remain with their original team; Sebastian Janikowski OAK, Chad Pennington NYJ, Shaun Alexander SEA, Rob Morris IND and Keith Bullock TEN. Though all have proven productive, none of those players fit a need at the time. Six first-round picks selected after ours are now out of the League.
O’Neal was traded to Cincinnati where he tied for the League lead in interceptions (10) and made the Pro Bowl a second time in ’05. He currently sits tied for 5th amongst all DC’s in interceptions since ’00. Current Broncos Champ Bailey and Dre’ Bly, along with former Bronco Tory James, rank 1 through 3. O’Neal was certainly deserving of the selection.
I’ll address some more picks later.
November 20th, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Nice to see you post.
I feel that the drafts of the Denver Broncos have been decent and improving over the last few years (the last two-three years show real promise).
Something people seem to forget is unlike other teams the Broncos haven’t had the luxury of multiple top ten draft picks. Instead the Broncos frequently draft 16 or above in the draft.
November 20th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Thanks for the input, Mr. Sundquist!
It’s really interesting to see your perspective on the matter… as well as a bit of relative information from the drafts where we supposedly drafted ‘busts’.
I look forward to reading more later… as I’m sure many others do!
- Erik
November 20th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
The draft that still bother me is ‘04. While the end result is that we have DJ Williams who will likely be a star MLB next year. I recall that we had to get him because Ian Gold’s representatives steered him to Tampa when he wanted to come back and you wanted to resign him. The guy taken right after us that could be a force right now at a position of huge need is Vince Wilfork (spelling?) from Miami. I thought he was a beast then and he is now. And further we never get a shot a real beast DT in Denver. They’re always long gone by the time we draft. Have you ever considered trading up (a’la the Cutler move) to get a can’t miss DT prospect? Nice work with the Thomas pick, by the way, how lucky were we on that???!!
November 20th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Thank you for the very insightful article. Best of luck on the rest of the season!
November 20th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
The difference that I have seen in recent years vs years past is that the Bronco’s are doing a much better job trying to fill their biggest holes on the roster via the draft.
I applaud the efforts !
Don’t even sweat the nay-sayers, tell them to shut-up and wait a year.
I find it ironic that people are whining when we actually have our you-know-what together.
P.S. I really want Phillips next year, then DT.
November 20th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Great read Ted,
Sometimes people forget the situations the Broncos were in back at a particular draft. Hindsight is 20/20. Not every pick will pan out, but it is nice to have some of the reasoning behind a pick, even if we always don’t agree with it.
We’ve also had some good draft choices as well which sometimes we overlook because we focus on the negatives.
I look forward to reading more.
November 20th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
thanks mr. sundquist for giving us fans more insight into what goes on behind the scenes.
ill be looking forward to reading more from the greatest organization known to football
November 20th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
I love pie.
There I said it.
November 20th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
I apologize
Some peoples kids.
November 20th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
The Broncos have done a good job with the draft over the years. Not all college players are a sure thing in the NFL. Overall, Denver has had decent draft picks. We get some right and we get some wrong.
Keep doing what you do Mr. Sunquist. We’ve had our worse, so now we can only get better. Go Broncos!
November 20th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
Quit relying on Mel Kiper Jr, that explains so much. Draft some DTs early this year will ya, specifically Frank Okam from Texas.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Ted, be sure to send your best down to Mobile this year. Also keep an eye out for some great juniors. Please find a way to get another pick within the first three rounds too.
November 20th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
I like ketchup with my foot Mr. Sundquist! I do have to say these last few drafts, correct me if I am wrong, seem to have a bit more of your imprint on them.
In your next post, I would love the hear the rationale in selecting George Foster and Terry Pierce. As I recall, Foster was out his entire senior year and wasnt rated higher than a bottom 2nd or 3rd round guy. He always seemed like he was on his backside too. Pierce, was about the same and never contributed on the field. I remember one feel good story about him helping his mom out with his $ and that is it!
Thanks,
Joe
November 20th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
nick Eason, Bryant Mcneal,and Paul Toviessi are wonders too : )
November 20th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Thanks for opening up and communicating about the positive potential seen in some of the bust picks. It must be very difficult to evaluate a college player’s character - not just his numbers or his film. It would be an interesting quest to see if there could be more horizons on evaluating their character - isn’t that what ultimately wasted valuable draft selections like Nash, O’Neal, Clarett, and some others? …and wasn’t it character that
was behind some of the greats - Gale Sayers, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Reggie White, and others? It is very difficult to get to know prospects that well, I guess, prior to the draft.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Mr. Sundquist,
Just asking out of curiosity, from what I remember, Randy Moss was picked 21st overall that year, and he was having a Brady Quinn like fall due to drug/legal allegations against him.
Did you and the rest of the FO people (Coach Shanahan, Mr. Beake) ever consider trading up to grab Moss by perhaps offering picks from the next years draft?
That 1998 offense was dominant, but imagine shotgun, Elway, with Sharpe, R. Smith, Eddy Mac, and Randy Moss lining up…
holey toledo, that offense would have easily shattered every single NFL offensive record….
By the way, great first blog entry. Can’t wait to read your next blog entry. Here are some of the draft choices/decisions I hope you shine some light on:
-Maurice “Grey Goose” Clarett
-George “Turnstile” Foster
-Ashley Lilly
-
November 20th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
I can not imagine how difficult it must be to try and determine not only who would be a good draft pick; but trying to decide who will be available when you pick.
With that being said I don’t care what you have to do draft Darren McFadden, RB from Arkansas, we don’t need stinking DL the young guys we got this year are going to be special.
November 20th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
Sorry, I dont know what happened. Anyway, here is a continuation of my previous post
-Terry Pierce
Thanks again, and GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!
November 20th, 2007 at 11:00 pm
What is it with early round wide receivers? You give them a ton of cash and they lose interest and tank on you. (Lelie, Nash, Detriot`s last 20 draft picks, you get the idea) What do you look for in the interviews that would give you an indication this will be a future problem? And I got to believe you screwed up letting Eslinger get away. Nalen`s wore out and this kid would have been the perfect replacement. Myers` shotgun snaps fly all over the place. Should have left him at guard where he rocks. GO BRONCOS!
November 20th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Forgot 1 thing, it took me a bit to get used this……but…..I like the way we have been using the shotgun approach to solving problems. (multiple picks in same area of need) It just makes sense, if there is an injury or a bust, the team doesn’t suffer. Who came up with that gem ?
November 20th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
Ted, to be succinct and precise, I will say this: fans who critique our draft picks through the years are the same fools who say Dan Marino sucks because he never won a championship. In this era of blogging and unbridled opinion, people think they know everything about everything when in reality you and I can both crap more football out of our rear ends than those morons could ever know. Sorry if that was a bit graphic! The point of the matter is, being a general manager of an NFL team is hard work and you and your front office brethren around the league don’t get enough love and respect. Thanks for doing your best to find diamonds in the rough, because ultimately, the draft is an inexact science better known as a crapshoot.
November 20th, 2007 at 11:49 pm
There have been complaints about the 2006 and 2007 draft, but it’s amazing to see how much talent these underrated players have had. It was incredible to see the big plays made by rookies (some undrafted) and 2nd year players against Tennessee. Sometimes fans expect immediate results, but it just takes a little time for a new team to learn and start to gel. Great job!
November 21st, 2007 at 12:13 am
Well I was in wonder of some draft picks (Foster and Pierce to name a couple).
But then again look at some of the bargains Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith. The draft is a crap shoot. Look at Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandrich, Todd Marinovich.
Then look at some of our number 1s…Trevor Pryce, Jay Cutler, Darrent Williams (2nd round but our 1st pick) AL WILSON (the best MLB in franchise history).
November 21st, 2007 at 3:38 am
Let me start by saying how great it is to have you blogging with the rest of the submissions many of us read daily here on Denver Broncos.com. Consider me one of the bastions that have used the internet to throw my hat in the ring in the blogosphere. MileHighReport.com has grown from the passion I have for all things orange and blue, and the need for me to find another sounding board to talk Denver Broncos football, and my wife couldn’t be happier….
Now, some of my thoughts on the draft…
While it is easy for anyone to pick a name and focus on it, I look at draft retention and there is no doubt that it plays a factor in a team’s depth or lack thereof. I recently broke this down - http://www.milehighreport.com/story/2007/11/2/91112/3144 - comparing the Broncos to the elite of the AFC the past 6 or 7 years(Pats, Colts, Steelers) just to see there we stood.
Using the theory that you can’t judge a draft for at least 3 years, I used the 5-year period from 2000-2004. During that time, the Broncos drafted 44 players. Only 3 remain - Ben Hamilton(2001 - 4a), D.J. Williams(2004 - 1), Jeff Shoate(2004 - 5). To be fair, the Broncos did use some trades to improve the ball club using picks and players from these drafts. Even if you include Clinton Portis(2002-2), George Foster(2003-1) and Tatum Bell(2004-2) and say they brought us Champ Bailey and Dre Bly we are at 5. Another pass is given because while Ian Gold was originally drafted in 2000, though he left and returned as a free agent.
That makes the total 6/44(13%).
Without getting into a lot of detail here, here are how the other teams broke down —
Colts 9/39(23%)
Patriots 10/44(22.7%)
Steelers 11/36(30.5%)
All three teams have retained more of there draft picks from 2000-2004, and when you look at the names in that list it is easy to see why those three teams have all won Super Bowls since the Broncos last one the big one —
Colts - (Reggie Wayne, Ryan Diem, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, Bob Sanders, Jake Scott)
Patriots - (Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Asante Samuel, Jarvis Green, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Eugene Wilson, Dan Koppen, Ben Watson)
Steelers - (Marvel Smith, Clark Haggans, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Max Starks, Ben Roethlisberger)
There are some big names there making a big time contribution. The Broncos are struggling a bit now because there were some years that the draft has not paid dividends in the past. The Broncos have 3 complete draft classes(2000, 2002, 2003) that have a total of one player still on the roster(Gold) and like I stated above, he actually left and came back.
I will agree that more goes into every selection than any of us realize, and all teams miss form time to time. But there is definitely a correlation between the team’s perceived struggles on the field and draft miscues off of it.
I will say this, though. 2005, 2006 and 2007 appear to be solid drafts, and this is a young team for the most part. As we all saw Monday Night, the future of the Broncos is definitely bright, and the present doesn’t look to shabby either.
-TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
November 21st, 2007 at 4:08 am
I love the previous post, because it confirms what we already know on the Bronco boards, the last few drafts have been gems.
The years he is referring to ? In my opinion there was a different draft philosophy in place back then. (and it wasn’t working too well)
We now fill slots, we don’t try to hit homeruns in positions that already have depth and quality. We get them in and put them to work.
We also need to keep in mind that the average NFL players career is very short.
The critics voice will be put to rest soon.
Thanks for the job you have been doing, I am impressed. I may have trashed you on the boards a couple of years ago, but I have seen the changes and appreciate how well you are doing finding talent.
November 21st, 2007 at 4:20 am
Superchop — I agree that the philosophy has changed, and since the main players - Sundquist and Shanahan - have been involved the entire time I hope that gets discussed here as well.
I am a huge proponent of drafting guys out of college that were test at big-time programs, playing in big-time games, in front of huge crowds. Just looking at the 2007 draft, the Broncos did just that - Moss(Florida), Crowder(Texas), Harris(ND) and Thomas(Florida). There is alot of winning, alot of conference titles and some National Championships in that list, and to me winning begets winning.
I, too, think Sundquist has done a great job, especially finding value in the undrafted market. I just wanted to point out that some fans don’t look at purely names in the draft, but at the draft as a whole when evaluating success or “failure”.
-TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
November 21st, 2007 at 5:05 am
great insight maybe some people will shut-up color and get back to their day jobs, the draft is a crapshoot, and i understand this. I am quite happy with our pics and have faith in the organization. However we do have needs this offseason and the Fans consesus is this:
DT,LB,S,O-line in order please get these positions taken care of in the draft, and we will love you………..hahaha
November 21st, 2007 at 5:20 am
Guru,
I have the utmost respect for your post and views, it actually mirrors something I wrote a couple of years ago.
On another note; I would like to see all ring-of-famers numbers retired for 7 years, it shows respect and will keep numbers in circulation, I live for the day that an active player takes his jersey (with that number on it) off and hands it to the inductee.
I also appreciate alumni games, great to see the old players on the sideline.
We need a booth where alot of fans can take pictures of players at Fan Day, and more players signing autographs to shorten lines.
Lastly, you can’t go wrong with one of MUG’s picks, his track record is insane, if he wants Okam, you can’t go wrong.
November 21st, 2007 at 6:21 am
Mr. Sundquist,
I surely appreciate you taking time out of your busy schedule to post here. As you can see by my name I am surely a true Bronco and Miami Hurricane fan. Needless to say I ecstatic when DJ was still on the board when our time to pick came around and the selection was made. It helped me to somewhat get over the previous draft. I was watching in 2002 and jumped off my couch when I saw the team before us pass on Ed Reed and just knew that he was going to be a Bronco and fill a void at safety that had been there since Atwater left us. Needless to say I sat back down when we selected Ashley Lelie and let Reed fall one more spot to Baltimore. The Portis selection in the next round helped ease the pain somewhat, but I still remember letting Reed slip right passed us.
I can only speculate what our secondary would look like today with him back there, but life goes on and I am surely proud of what we have now. I get tired of hearing the excuses come out of Indy about how the Colts and Manning’s struggles as of late are due to injuries to Harrison and Freeney. If those injuries are all it takes to ruin the raining super bowl chamipions, you, Mike and all of the Broncos staff and players should be commended because of the adversity we have had to play through this year. I am proud of each and every one of you if it just based on the depth and youth that we have and the way each player has stepped up in their position and have never onced used excuses.
I commend all of you and can only imagine what teams like the Patriots and Colts have in store for them in the coming years with the level our rookies and second year guys are currently playing at. The league better take notice in a hurry.
Thanks again,
Joe
November 21st, 2007 at 8:33 am
Amazing job!!!!!!!!!!
The Portis, Champ/Bly trade are you kidding? That was an incredible piece of work. Then best QB (Cutler), Best TE (Chef), Best WR (Marshall), Elvis, Kuper and Elsinger…Nice!
I would have liked to see Cosidine instead of Clarret but can’t win them all. I would love to see the next coming of Atwater through free-agency, trade or draft personally as first priority. Then LB’s so we can give a 3-4 look with Elvis as an edge rusher. Then DT. Thanks for your time. Go Broncos!!!!!!!!!!
November 21st, 2007 at 8:45 am
Thanks for the insight.
Go Broncos
November 21st, 2007 at 8:55 am
Call me crazy but Gold at 223lbs with his speed could be a monster at Strong Saftey? PS. Please tell Webster to get a new helmet that stays on : )
November 21st, 2007 at 10:17 am
Ted - Your intelligence is evident in your blogging, and the building of our franchise! We are glad that you are here. If only we could keep our youngsters healthy.
November 21st, 2007 at 10:36 am
Dear Mr Sundquist,
As an English fan it really is something special for a GM to communicate so freely with the fans and it will help me understand better the enormous amount of work that goes into managing a team like the Bronco’s.
Many thanks for your blog, it is much appreciated, and it is great for getting input from so many intelligent Bronco supporters, which I also appreciate.
Kind regards
Rex Horwood
November 21st, 2007 at 9:19 pm
I dont know how the trend has turned for the broncos as far as drafting is concerned, but you guys have done TOP NOTCH the last couple years. However you guys are evaluating talent dont stop. Please bring in more scouts pleasel. I dont know whose idea it was to nab cutler but man that was pure genious
November 24th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
I think that many folks simply don’t understand that most people even on the first day of the draft don’t make it in the NFL. People expect all first rounders to be all-pros and all second rounders to be solid starters.
That’s simply not realistic. If all goes well, first rounders should be starters, but that’s not even a given.
I’ve also heard people complain about our drafting smaller quicker linemen. I think this is ludicrous because the Broncos have been successful finding good talent with late round picks enough to have maintained a very much above average line at both pass blocking and run blocking. Further, the Broncos have been able to survive transitions of losing great linemen.
The thing is that in the end, being able to maintain an above average line with picks who almost all don’t make it in the league is a great boon because it allows us to spend our picks on other positions.
I think it’s the same type of advantage that the Patriots had when they were the only team drafting for 3-4 schemes and were able to pick up good players for their scheme who did not fit other schemes.
MUG: That’s just ludicrous. You know that the Broncos don’t draft based on Kiper. Or else they wouldn’t be criticized for moves like drafting Foster or Watts who weren’t rated very well on their boards.
Come on. You know better than that.
It makes it look like you are trying to find a reason to criticize him instead of criticize him for actual flaws that you notice.
November 29th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
In hindsight, the passing up on Hines is tough! As well as Jurevicious..but we can see the thought process in the Nash decision. However, a dominate-not avg running game makes the offense go, and Ed and Rod could block like no other..their hustle and skill in that department boosted the running game, and their efforts allowed them to be successful in the passing game..the willingness/potential ability to block at a high level has to be factor in scouting WR’s.
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