The “Draft” series of posts was meant to give you some insight into a few past picks that didn’t necessarily have the success or longevity that many of you might have expected. No excuses — they are what they are. However, I can assure you that as much evaluative detail, analysis and overall work went into the selection of those players as did the likes of Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Moss or Tim Crowder.
Our system of collecting the information, utilizing the data and eventually setting the draft board is as thorough as any in the League. How do I know this? Because the many scouts and coaches that have come to the Broncos from other clubs and other systems have told me so. Your Denver Broncos will not be outmatched in this area, period. (Remember, I was an Intelligence Officer in the Air Force. Gathering and analyzing is what we did.)
That said, I promised I would touch on some of my own philosophies/feelings surrounding the draft, and it is important to understand that these are mine and mine alone. They have been incorporated into the way we implement the business of “scouting” and in the manner in which I advise our Head Coach when we’re “on the clock.”
Trying to define one “central philosophy” with which we attack any draft would be like trying to cram smoke into a bottle. Nothing is to say that we could not have gone with a defensive end when we took a wide receiver instead, but no single season’s draft and the picks that coincide with it exist in a vacuum.
There are extenuating circumstances surrounding the existing roster, salary-cap status and overall budget situation that have a profound effect on who we might select. We weigh our overall needs, addressing them in the best possible manner, whether through free agency, trades or the draft. At times, some positions can be more efficiently filled with a veteran player than a developmental rookie.
Also, rarely taken into account is our own coaching turnover. Most would think that the stability of Coach Shanahan has maintained a parallel stability in the types of players we’re looking for at certain positions. That might be the case when speaking of running backs or offensive linemen. But recall that we’ve had four defensive coordinators since 1995, each with his own unique requirements for implementing his own unique scheme. That may have been most apparent this past draft as we rebuilt the defensive line for the third time in four years.
What I can say is that there is a fallacy out there that Coach Shanahan is the “end all” when it comes to draft picks. That could be the farthest thing from the truth. What he has is “final say” on who we pick. This is no different than a General having “final say” over battle plans or a CEO over a major corporate marketing plan. It took a lot of work prior to getting to that point.
In fact, we probably have more people with input during draft preparations than any other club in the League. My own perspective brings a broad based view of the existing roster and its associated contractual obligations, pro personnel issues, my own college scouting background and certainly the financial status of the club as it pertains to the money set aside for players.
Jim Goodman, Director of Player Personnel, brings years of experience as a college coach and recruiting coordinator to our discussions. Jim was a very successful area scout in the southeast prior to taking over the college scouting department and then player personnel. He acts as our “national” scout, usually personally evaluating the top 100-150 prospects across the country. Mix in an additional four evaluations (per player) from our area scouts and the input of the coordinator and position coach, and suddenly there are a myriad of “voices” to be heard.
That in itself is not such a bad thing (numerous opinions), but I think you have to be wary of not being able to “see the forest for the trees.” I’ve noticed in the past that issues of personal emotion or group-think can get in the way of making sound decisions (both by scouts and coaches). I’ll also admit that players have traveled up and down the board from their original “grade” as a result. I think we’ve done a much better job as of late in keeping with the plan, using the information that has been gathered and selecting the right players for the Broncos.
There are many reasons why you want your first and second round selections to stick, but probably at the top of the list is the “opportunity cost” of adding talent to your roster, coupled with the financial/cap obligations being allocated to a highly talented, yet unproven player. I’ll agree with many of you that “too much” and “too often” can severely hamper a club’s ability to put a competitive team on the field. These are players, that because of the cost/length of the contract, should be counted on as building blocks to your roster over four or five years. They have to “make your team” in year one and hopefully be producing sooner rather than later.
Third-round selections vary a bit in that the financial impact lessens substantially, but certainly not the fact that they fall in the “top 100″ players of a class. Fourth rounders become a new “first round.” There are usually any number of reasons that a particular player may have “slipped”. Most teams reevaluate their board at the end of the first day and look for values at the beginning of day two. This approach was taken with Marcus Thomas in ’07 and Maurice Clarett in ’05.
Earlier I touched on the fact that more college free agents are on active rosters than the combined total of the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. These players also log more playtime on average than their drafted counterparts.
I personally see very little difference in these two pools. Drafted players (fifth, sixth and seventh rounds) garner more guaranteed money than free agents and yet aren’t necessarily any more apt to make your roster. So the fact that we might only draft four players one year has to be tempered with how many college free agents we may have signed. Success here can be as good as a draft choice; Rod Smith, Matt Lepsis, Cecil Sapp, Mike Bell, Selvin Young, Erik Pears.
I’m looking at this post and realize that it may take you as long as a first-round pick to read it, so I’ll break and come back with more later. I look forward to it.
Tags: Jim Goodman, NFL Draft, Preparation
As I read this, I was wondering what you thought of the changes in the timing of the draft rounds?
Thanks for the read. Good luck Sunday.
Interesting content, again I applaud this effort. “Final Say”? Theres a strong phrase. It has become obvious to me, with the major expantion of college talent and colleges doing a better job of using pro systems that drafting has become far less of an EXACT SCIENCE than it was years ago. It would appear, now more than ever before, NFL teams can group players into a talent Block and pick by need from that Block because of the huge variations in how Players evolve in the NFL.
I look forward to 08′ and 09′ drafts filled with big, physical FAST players to fill out our front 7 on defense and catch up to San Diego. Dont let Mr Shannahan “Final Say” you into too many offensive players. Its your name on the GM resume, not his.
I agree with the previous poster on many levels. I think we’re nearly set on offense. I’m a little concerned about the age of offensive line but I think we’re pretty set other than that. One thing I think we need to be sure to do is not fall into that trap that just any old RB will work. Although I think we can “plug-n-play many players at that position, I think having a game changer like Steve Slaton would be deadly. I think we need a back that can do some things in open space by catching the football. Our blockers won’t have to hold their blocks as long and Jay Cutler with have yet another weapon he can check down to. This, in turn, will save him from some hits and drive altering sacks. So, if we can draft Slaton in the late first or sometime in the second round, I would love that move.
Defensively we need another safety for sure. I like Abdullah back there but Lynch and Ferguson are liabilities now. We could use a physical safety with range kind of like Reggie Nelson, who I was hoping we would draft. Instead, we traded up to get Jarvis Moss. I don’t have a real problem with Jarvis Moss being our selection, however, I didn’t like trading up to get him with Reggie Nelson still out there. When you look at Dumervil and at the time Ekuban as starters, I didn’t think Moss was really necessary to the point of trading up to get him. We knew the age concerns of Ferguson and Lynch coupled with the injury to Sam Brandon. We were already thin at safety and we dodged a major bullet with the emergence of Abdullah and the great team-first attitude of Dominique Foxworth. By the way, Foxy needs to be an offseason priority for us. You can’t lose a guy like that from your locker room AND lose more depth in an aging secondary.
If Ted’s post was as long as it takes to pick a first round draft choice then my was like a second rounder! Thanks again, Ted.
One more thing:
I purposely avoided the topic of defensive tackle. That position is a glaring need and probably needs the most attention of any position. I’m all for adding 1 or 2 veterans there and drafting someone both on Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft. When you add 4 solid players to go with Marcus Thomas, we should have plenty of depth and possibly a couple of surprising performers that rise up. We can still get Slaton and a hard hitting safety with more range than our golden oldies if this philosophy is taken.
Not to be overlooked is the need for a kick returner….which I think Slaton would be great at if given the chance. He reminds me of Reggie Bush in a lot of ways and Bush was phenomenal as a kick returner in college. With Selvin Young, Travis Henry and Andre Hall on the roster, injury risk shouldn’t me too much of a reason not to let him have that job.
This post is a gold mine. This is exactly what a lot of fans are wondering about when it comes to their team, “How do our guys conduct themselves in their business operations? Can I agree, am I behind them, or do we have issues that I can’t be a fan of.” I for one will be very excited to watch the upcoming drafts, if for no other reason than to better interpret the significance or our draft moves. Great stuff. Maybe you could also talk a little bit about the decision to go after a particular position in the draft, from our DB splurge, to our DL plurge last year.
Could I be one to hope for 2nd level defensive splurge in the coming year?
great job Shanahan , thanks Bates, fireeeeeeeeeeee shanahan!!!!!!!!
How is posible, loss in Oakanld?
Ted,
Please keep the blog coming, it is great information and definitely is a must for us die hard Broncos fans. Here are a few things I would like to see you discuss. What was the thought process in taking 3 cornerbacks (Williams, Paymah, and Foxworth) in a row during the 2004 draft instead of perhaps defensive linemen? Also, what was the logic behind letting Bertrand Berry (after 2003 season) and Reggie Hayward (after 2004 season) go? Thank you!
Loyalty is on to something in the comment above. There seems, at least in the past, to be a certain “value” placed on certain positions in the organization. We have watched multiple Defensive Ends leave via free agency(Hayward, Berry, Pryce(released)), and perhaps rightly so, but I get the sense that the philosophy is that the team can get D-Line talent via FA or the draft instead of keeping our own.
Can you touch on that, perhaps how the decision-makers value certain positions on the roster more than others…
Thanks again!
TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
milehighreport@gmail.com
THANKS CUTLER , THANKS SHANAHAN
Ted – I really enjoy reading on the subjects you publish. You give us such an insight on how things really work – keep it up. Finding quality defensive lineman is a challenge not only for the Broncos, but all organizations – just not that many dominating players available. With that said and going back toJoe Colliers defense, many team are in the 3-4 which seems to bring more speed and more options to a defense. Mecklenburg excelled in the 3-4 and I think primarily, the offense really never knew where he was coming from or going. Linebackers for several years was our strength and having four of them on the field could not only help our pass rush, but also our run defense. What is the reason Denver does not switch to the 3-4?
Hey RNST,
Did Shanahan lose the fumbles or throw the INT’s. He should be blamed for performance not play.
These are great posts especially for someone who is a college football fan for the purpose of seeing the next great Bronco.
This year is extremely frustrating and I was curious what goes into your decision for coaches. This defense has lots of talent and the D coordinator was allowed almost Denvers entire draft (not including trades and free agent signings) to bulid the defense he wanted, yet Denver has the 2nd worst defense in the leauge in Points (which is the most important stat if you ask me). Denvers playmakers are not making plays and I put that on the coach for not putting in the right scheme or calls to put them in a place to make plays. How long are you going to let this coach stay and continue to try to implement this Scheme that isn’t working? Playcalling on offense is conservative at best and was last year as well. Is Hiemendinger calling the plays or Shanahan?
I agree we need more speed at Safety. Not alot of Safeties in this upcoming draft. How is Roderick Rogers coming along? There are plenty of Defensive tackles in this upcoming draft. I would like to see a good running back also, like Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart, or Seve Slaon. I agree we need a good returner also.
08 Draft
Rd 1- S/ DT Kenny Phillups/ Sedrick Ellis
Rd 2 -DT/S/RB Frank Okam/ Tom Zbikowski/Kevin Smith
(Craig Steltz) (Steve Slaton)
(Rashard Menenhall)
Rd 3 -KR/RB Justin Forsett/Mike Hart (this guy has tons of Hart)
Rd 4 -DT/S Jason Shirley/Marcus Griffin
Any thoughts?
Go Broncos- no more bleeding Blue and Orange this year…going to need an I.V. soon!
I love reading this blog. Maybe Glenn Dorsey will slip in the draft from the top 5 or 10 picks because of his injury and be avialable for us to draft. The Giants have athletic and fast defensive lineman (kiewanuka?, Uminora, Strahan) and move them around on the line to create confusion on the offensive. With Dumervil, Moss, and Crowder we have some young and fast talent. Any thoughts on copying that kind of a defensive scheme?
Great insight on the value of certain positions. Again we made mistakes building the defense backwards and these last two seasons have exposed that. I think the 07′ draft confirms the organizations awareness of that. The offense is currently #8 rush, #13 pass and #18 (tie with TB) at 20pts a game and that should all improve with another 4 games and offseason for #6.
The defense is #31 rush and #31 pts allowed (27/game) its a wonder we’ve won 5 games (thanks Jay Cutler and Elam).
Offense will be top 10 next year. PLEASE break the bank on Defense (FA- Lance Briggs, J. Harrison- PITT, Trade for Jonathan Vilma or Kris Jenkins) heck- take a shot at Lavar Arrington.
Then draft speed- LB/FS- Both positions can contribute as rookies more easily, DT is tough but we need two more as I only see Thomas and McKinley staying (maybe Burton on the Taxi squad)
A trade for Vilma, or signing of Briggs would allow us to draft USC MLB (keith Rivers?) somewhere around 15 or an OLB in the second and move DJ back outside.
This defense is 5 players away (2xDT, 2XLB and 1 safety) from being very good (and I havent given up on Steve Cargile yet, he was a TO machine in the pre-season and just needs some experience)
DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE.
Dont forget about Vilma, Jenkins or Briggs MAKE IT HAPPEN!
I can’t complain about the decisions the team has made over the last few years. In fact, I feel like we do a better job drafting in the lower rounds than any other team. Look at Sheffler and Marshall as two recent jackpots. I like our offense as it is. The only weakness I see is the O-line, but we have had some key injuries there. Hopefully our young guys will get better and improve.
Defense and special teams is where I would like us to focus. We have one of the best secondaries in the league with Bailey, Bly, Lynch, and Ferguson, but we still struggle stopping the pass. Don’t let the rankings fool you. We are currently ranked 9th in the league in passing yards allowed/game with around 228.6 yards. That sounds good, but it’s not. The only reason that number isn’t higher is because every team is able to run on us. Running controls the clock and tires the defense. We are 31st in the leauge in run defense, giving up almost 150 yards/game. That is horrible. No wonder teams run it a lot against us.
Our opponents are having a lot of success passing when they choose to. Look at Chicago and Oakland as the most recent success stories. They both are a run first teams. We did OK stopping them at first, but when they needed to pass, they did it with ease. Chicago had no choice to pass with less than 5 minutes in the game. Our defense made Rex Grossman look like John Elway (not quite). We did the same with Oakland’s QB.
So why do we struggle against the pass? Simple. Bottom line, we have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. We could clone 4 Champ Baileys and still not be able to stop a good passing attack because we don’t put pressure on QBs. YOU CANNOT GIVE THE WORST QB ALL DAY TO PASS. The difference between Peyton Manning and Eli Manning would greatly diminish if Eli had Peyton’s offensive line. IF YOU CANNOT GET PREASURE ON THE QB, YOU WILL HAVE A HARD TIME WINNING.
Why do you think the Colts destroy us every time we play a meaningful game with them? It is pretty simple. Our corners can only cover people for so long. Their O-line is so superior to our D-line that we have no chance of winning. The advantage always belongs the the WR the longer you give a QB to pass.
Look around the league right now. Who are the premier teams? Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Dallas, New England, and the Giants. What do they have in common. They all have good to great defensive lines. They all pressure the QB. Their secondaries aren’t even comparable to ours, but they have more success because their D-lines take control. I’ll admit that New England’s line is OK, but their schemes make up for it. They have less talent on defense, but they always have more success than us. These teams understand the importance of pressuring the QB. It is the single most important phase of the game. If you have a poor O-line, you won’t win. If you have a poor D-line, you won’t win.
I’ll admit that we haven’t had a premier line in the last 10 years. However, we had success because we could at least stop the run almost as good as any team. That is just gone now. We can’t stop the run and we can’t pressure the QB. Until both or one of these areas significantly improve, we will continue being a mid-pack team. We have a good offense, that may develop into a great offense. We have good linebackers and great players in the secondary (even though I have to admit the Bly has struggled this year).
We have potential, but we are both too young and too out of shape on the D-line. However, Sam Adams was released the other day, so we are now just mostly too young.
Bottom line is this. If we do not significantly improve our rush defense by getting better play from our D-line, we will continue losing. We will never win consistently if our D-line is overpowered game in and game out. Improving our rush defense would make us playoff contenders.
However, if we don’t also get better at pressuring the QB, we will never be an elite team. We can do one or the other and win in this league. BUT, WE WILL NEVER BEAT INDY OR ANY OTHER TEAM WITH A POWERFUL OFFENSE UNTIL WE CAN STOP THE RUN AND PRESSURE THE QB. Even a great offense can’t make up for this huge gap.
Thanks for all the interesting information once again.
I see a lot of responders want your job, or some aspects of it. Me – I am more than happy for you and Coach Shanahan to continue the hard work.
We have an old saying in England “You can’t teach your grandmother to suck eggs”, and I think this applies here.
One thing I would like to ask about is the effect of having a lot of rookies in the roster. From what I understand they do not have the rest and recuperation time that prior year professionals have. Does this have any detrimental effect on the team when you are forced to rely on them when you have multiple injuries to your veterans?
Kind regards
Rex Horwood
Gread post Mr. Sundquist.
I have a question about the Free Agency process.
What decisions do you make when regarding pursuing a certain FA or letting one of your own UFA’s go to another squad?
In particular, could you explain the logic back in the 2005 offseason of letting a double digit sack artist such as Reggie Hayward leave in favor of bringing Ian Gold back?
PS. Please oh please do not let Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil, or Tony Scheffler even sniff Free Agency!!!!!!!!!
(I didn’t mention Jay because I know you guys will give him a fat old contract extension when the time is right, he is the franchise!!!!)
Ted,
One of the deals that helped win back-to-back Superbowls were the additions prior to Shanny. In particular Zimmerman and Habib for the O-Line. It seems Denver tries too hard to develop free agent linemen. Habib and Zimmerman were proven commodities. It followed with Salaam and even Tony Jones. Could we expect any help there for 2008 with proven players?
Al Wilson has sure been missed! How about a proven veteran there as well?
It never hurts to remind you, Shanny, and the rest of the organization that there are many Broncos fans that understand how difficult it is to win in the NFL. We appreciate your commitment, sacrifice, and expertise in pursuing another Super Bowl title. I have no doubt that this team is headed in the right direction. Your insight on this blog is a rare look that most of us are not privy to.
If you don’t blog again….MERRY CHRISTMAS !!
ted,
thanks for taking the time to write these. i really enjoy reading them. i know your scouting department takes a look at almost every player in college football but i would just like to suggest 1 small school guy.
TE Joseph Tuineau from Southeast Missouri St. standing at 6-7 285 lbs he is in the mold of other College TEs who have had success at OT in the ZBS, Lepsis and mustard to name a couple.
Ted,
I enjoyed reading the blogs, but I must say having been an active draft observer, I feel frustrated by the Broncos lack of success in the top end of the draft. When I see teams like the Patriots, Steelers, and Chargers that have built almost excusively through the draft and smart free agent signings, I am wondering why it seems like we are reaching for a need instead of the best available in most drafts. Could you address the thinking of taking best available versus taking for need, it seems like that has been a bigger issue. With the Broncos willingness to make trades, it seems like the Broncos may be better served by obtaining a strength if available and then dealing for our weakness, Champ Bailey trade seems to be a good example of this.
Ted,
I hope to see a new blog soon!
GO BRONCOS!
Ted,
I know someone’s head has to roll after this season I just hope its yours.
Wow, Dekrey that was a really great post, if you wanted to show the world that you are a tool who can not come up with anything close to a logical comment. Next time save that for some place where Mr. Sundquist has not been kind enough to give us a look at what goes on in the drafting process.
Players to look at,
LT- Kirk Barton
LB- Shawn Crable
DT-Frank Okam, Red Bryant
FB- Owen Schmidt
S- Kenny Phillips
Just my .02
Dallas would be a great trading partner, we need bodies.