Good morning and good Monday from Colorado, which tonight will merely be the capital of the football world, not the sporting world in general, since the hometown Rockies went down in four games to the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night.
Admittedly, it seemed as though the Broncos’ realm went on momentary backburner in the community’s consciousness in deference to the World Series. It’s quite understandable; even Head Coach Mike Shanahan talked of wanting to be able to watch the Rockies’ games when he answered media questions throughout the last few weeks. It wasn’t difficult to get caught up in the extraordinary nature of their run to the World Series — and the 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Red Sox in no way diminishes the magnitude of their accomplishment. Just like the Broncos of ’77 — a comparison made by fellow blogger Jim Saccomano — simply being a part of the season’s final duel made the year a success beyond any observer’s dreams. Other Rockies teams might win the World Series someday, but perhaps none will be as special and magical as this group.
By the way, I did manage to make it to Saturday’s Game 3, but I’ll write about that another time.
Tonight, the Colorado sporting stage belongs to the Broncos, and perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this game between the Broncos and Green Bay Packers is the comparison at quarterback — particularly the parallels that many have drawn between Jay Cutler and Brett Favre.
Stylistically, the comparison is often made, with many considering Cutler of the “gunslinger” ilk of passer personified by Favre. Broncos cornerback Dre’ Bly said that Cutler indeed reminded him of the longtime Packers star, whom he faced twice annually from 2003-06 while playing for the Detroit Lions.
“The one thing about Jay, he might make a mistake, but he’s going to go back out there and throw the football and not let any mistake faze him,” Bly said. “That’s the kind of guy you want behind center — a guy that’s going to give you the opportunity to win and a guy that’s going to give you a chance to make a play.”
But making any comparison of a young quarterback to one whose legacy is already assured and whose resumes are already overflowing is not fair to the younger passers, who a) surely want to establish their own name and identity and b) who already exist under enough pressure by playing in the NFL.
Shanahan expressed a similar sentiment last week.
“You guys (the media) asked me to compare Brian Griese’s arm strength to Joe Montana and I did, so I said Brian Griese is Joe Montana,” Shanahan said last week. “To use a reference like that in front of you guys, I think I’ll stay away from that because all of a sudden Jay Cutler now will be Brett Favre in (Cutler’s) first year as a starter.”
Boiling down the numbers of their first 11 starts, here’s how tonight’s starting quarterbacks stack up:
| CUTLER AND FAVRE — THEIR FIRST 11 STARTS | ||||||
| JAY CUTLER, 2006-07 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 318 | 201 | 63.2 | 2,407 | 16 | 13 | 86.0 |
| BRETT FAVRE, 1992 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 360 | 235 | 65.3 | 2,490 | 14 | 8 | 89.0 |
Pretty comparable. Favre’s slight edge in passer rating owes to his lower interception percentage (2.22 pct. to 4.09 pct.) and higher completion percentage (shown above); Cutler has the advantage in touchdown percentage (5.03 pct. to 3.88 pct.) and yardage per attempt (7.57 yards to 6.92). What isn’t shown above are the quarterbacks’ comeback statistics; Cutler has six game-winning or -tying fourth-quarter/overtime drives in his first 11 starts, while Favre had three (although that does not include a game-winning march against Cincinnati when he entered in relief of Don Majkowski).
These numbers also piqued my curiousity as to how Cutler stacked up with other notable quarterbacks of the past 25 years in their first 11 starts. This is by no means intended to represent a complete list; rather, it is a smattering of quarterbacks who have enjoyed some measure of success — whether in terms of being a long-term starter or significant playoff accomplishment — over the last 20-plus years. Contrast Cutler’s numbers with theirs, and you’ll see that the young passer is off to an above-average start to his career:
| SOME NOTABLE QUUARTERBACKS — THEIR FIRST 11 STARTS | ||||||
| TROY AIKMAN, 1989 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 293 | 155 | 52.9 | 1,749 | 9 | 18 | 55.7 |
| DREW BLEDSOE, 1993 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 370 | 179 | 48.4 | 2,069 | 11 | 14 | 59.8 |
| TOM BRADY, 2001 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 320 | 212 | 66.3 | 2,254 | 16 | 9 | 91.6 |
| RANDALL CUNNINGHAM, 1985-87 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 291 | 153 | 52.6 | 1,900 | 9 | 14 | 63.4 |
| TRENT DILFER, 1994-95 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 274 | 138 | 50.4 | 1707 | 3 | 12 | 55.4 |
| BOOMER ESIASON, 1984-85 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 286 | 159 | 52.6 | 2,017 | 17 | 10 | 83.0 |
| JIM EVERETT, 1986-87 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 324 | 157 | 48.5 | 1,869 | 9 | 17 | 53.9 |
| BRETT FAVRE, 1992 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 360 | 235 | 65.3 | 2,490 | 14 | 8 | 89.0 |
| JEFF GARCIA, 1999-2000 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 381 | 230 | 60.4 | 2,633 | 14 | 9 | 83.6 |
| JIM KELLY, 1986 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 317 | 191 | 60.3 | 2,389 | 15 | 12 | 83.7 |
| BERNIE KOSAR, 1985-86 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 271 | 137 | 50.6 | 1,766 | 9 | 7 | 71.7 |
| PEYTON MANNING, 1998 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 407 | 223 | 54.8 | 2,453 | 16 | 22 | 63.4 |
| DAN MARINO, 1983-84 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 312 | 187 | 59.9 | 2,515 | 24 | 7 | 101.9 |
| DONOVAN McNABB, 1999-2000 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 333 | 184 | 55.3 | 1,777 | 14 | 10 | 71.9 |
| STEVE McNAIR, 1995-97 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 292 | 160 | 54.8 | 2,136 | 12 | 9 | 79.1 |
| CARSON PALMER, 2004 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 372 | 216 | 58.1 | 2,313 | 13 | 16 | 70.1 |
| JAKE PLUMMER, 1997-98 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 356 | 188 | 52.8 | 2,475 | 15 | 18 | 68.0 |
| PHILIP RIVERS, 2006 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 331 | 215 | 65.0 | 2,440 | 15 | 6 | 94.5 |
| MARK RYPIEN, 1988-89 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 319 | 176 | 55.2 | 2,735 | 23 | 13 | 90.8 |
| VINNY TESTAVERDE, 1987-88 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 389 | 185 | 47.6 | 2,873 | 12 | 21 | 60.3 |
| KURT WARNER, 1999 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 346 | 228 | 65.9 | 2,862 | 29 | 7 | 111.0 |
| STEVE YOUNG, 1985-86 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 258 | 135 | 52.3 | 1,744 | 6 | 10 | 65.6 |
| AVERAGES | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 327.4 | 183.8 | 56.4 | 2,234.8 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 75.8 |
So relative to that sample set of quarterbacks in their first 11 games, Cutler had a significantly better completion percentage (6.8 percent, to be exact), more touchdowns, more yardage, and slightly more interceptions (0.8 more than the norm of this group).
Finally, there is the inevitable comparison with the other two quarterbacks in the 2006 first round. In passing numbers, Cutler is at the head of this class:
| THE CLASS OF ’06 — FIRST 11 STARTS | ||||||
| JAY CUTLER, 2006-07 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 318 | 201 | 63.2 | 2,407 | 16 | 13 | 86.0 |
| MATT LEINART, 2006 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 368 | 208 | 56.5 | 2,493 | 11 | 11 | 74.9 |
| VINCE YOUNG, 2006 | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 277 | 146 | 52.7 | 1,656 | 9 | 10 | 66.7 |
| AVERAGES | ||||||
| ATT. | COMP. | PCT. | YDS. | TD | INT | RATE |
| 320.3 | 185.0 | 57.5 | 2,185.3 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 75.9 |
Just some numbers to consider, nothing more.
Talk to you from the stadium later today … until then, listen to the pregame podcast and vaya con Dios.
Tags: Green Bay Packers, Jay Cutler
i must admit to having had split loyalties. As much as i wanted the rockies to win, the only live baseball game i’ve seen was at fenway about 15 years ago.
But the quarterback stats gives an interesting comparison. It would also be interesting to see the win-loss column too.
maybe one day when there’s not much else going on you could take us through the quarterback rating calculation. Or is that like asking someone to explain ERA? I suppose i could google it but, meh.
Really interesting article, Andrew. I also noticed which quarterback we did not compare Cutler too, even though everyone is going to clamor for it….
The “o” button stuck in “too”, I swear…..
very informative blog you wrote there Andrew… thanks. I’d say by proof up above Cutler has done very well for only 11 starts. He’s up there and I just encourage him to keep getting better and help this team get better. I love this QB, I know he was the right choice. It just takes time for his talent to come out in full effect. He’s more than capable of it, we have a very interesting QB… in alot of ways he reminds me a certain someone who’s more than familiar around here. I dont’ need to say his name but even though they are two very different people Cutler reflects him ALOT!!
Too bad about those Rockies, although I’m a little disappointed we couldn’t even win 1 stinkin’ game, I’m still thrilled that we even got to the World Series. I really think that 8 day break they had really killed ‘em. I’ve been telling people I know and just talking to them about these two teams we got here. And I found it interesting that they are two opposites or (were). The Rockies were on a roll of winning game after game, a break was going to kill them (they’ve already proven that one) and the Broncos started off not so well but that bye week is just what they needed to come back. It’s just interesting that one team needed the week off and the other didn’t. Just a little weird thing that popped up in my head.
Would’ve been awesome for the two teams to play just blocks away from each other tonight but now I won’t have to worry about what game to watch. Stickin’ to my orange & blue.
Go kick some cheesehead butt.
GO BRONCOS!!!
Solid post Mase….It is always good to get some perspective. Surrounding talent plays so much a factor is all this as well, and stats, more than anything, can be twisted any way we want. I know what I see, and what I see is a young QB, learning, growing and most importantly getting better, every week….
Here’s to a happy Monday Night!!!
TSG
http://www.milehighreport.com
Nice work on the list of “notable” QB’s!!! I was about to “skim” over the rest of the article, but seeing Bernie Kosar get a mention MADE me read it all! So many players listed, with varied backgrounds, schemes, coaches and players already on those teams.
Just, WOW, it provokes a lot of thought!
(PS- For comedy value, I’d like to see a few stats of 1st round draft BUSTS, like Blackledge, Marinovich, Klingler, Akili Smith, etc, but it would probably ruin the tone of the GOOD article you wrote!)
Andrew – I need some help. I am down 15 points in this week’s fantasy football game. My opponent has already played all of his guys. I have Travis Henry and Selvin Young. Which is most likely to get me 100 yards rushing and 1 TD? Is Henry going to play? Thanks!
How bout Elways first 11 starts
Hey Andrew,
Gotta love Cutler’s arm strength and ability to stand in there and get a good ball away. It’s one thing that really makes him different from Jake the Snake who I quite liked by the way (11 straight games no INTs) So let me ask this, how is it that in obvious passing situations (3rd and 6+) I see Shanahan calling run plays? Isn’t that why you bench Jake and bring in a strong arm? If he’s got the arm and he’s your guy, shouldn’t you put the ball in his hands rather than take it out of his hands? Those play calls make no sense to me in light of the QB change of last season. Thanks.
exactly…what about elway’s first 11 starts..cmon andrew, you can throw that out there too…some broncos fans were shutting the door on cutler a couple of weeks ago, and like i said before.. look at peyton manning’s first 11 starts not that great, but now in my mind is the best qb out there today…Cutler is going to be the next best thing in denver for years to come, mark my words…so all bronco fans enjoy, because we (broncos) are a championship team every year, and rarely ever see a losing season…the broncos are built to win and make the playoffs every year………brncos4life….oh and by the way…
Hey Mason,
I just wanted to first say thanks for the all the opportunities you give us fans to express our passion towards our beloved Broncos! Nice job!
Elway07, Great point! It always amazes me how so many people (not just in Denver) want to pull the trigger on talent. 11 games is what this kids has under his belt. 11 Games!! Not only does he show improvement from game to game like you said, but he handles himself so well. I truly believe he takes the game of football the way I would want him too.
My 4 year old son was watching one of his press confrences with me when they asked him about Favre. My son said “Dad he’s nice” I hope I’m right but I told him…”Son he is nice, he respects all the guys that played the game before him…he’s happy he gets a chance to do it…”
Funny enough my son then asked why I didn’t play for the Broncos….you can imagine how that went
Lastly, I’m not a die hard of any MLB team and I won’t jump on a bandwagon. However, to all you Rockies fan’s I salute you. What your team did this year was truly special!!
ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mason,
Thanks for a superb article! Enjoy your Monday.
i enjoyed that! cutler is bound for stardom in the nfl….and we got the best of the 06 class thats for sure.
id like to see these stats again with a 16 games comparison. that would be one full year. would you be able to do that andrew?
Very good article. I have to admit something. As a kid, I grew up watching the Broncos during the Elway era and after Elway I was sort of discontent with the QB position. Still supported the Broncos cause I bleed orange and blue; however, I was re-vitalized when Cutler stepped on the field for his first game against the Seahawks.
I’d never seen him play before, but after that game I was so excited. I felt like a kid again.
He’s like a well-oiled machine when he steps back in the pocket. I’ve never seen him get flustered and he has a cool and calm swagger when under pressure. Very under control – mentally and physically; that’s so important.
A couple of quick comments, and then I’ll be back later:
This link takes you to a link to show how the passer rating is calculated. What is intriguing here is how the NFL, college football and Arena Football League have each concocted different formulas for evaluating their quarterbacks. The difference in the AFL is in touchdowns/attempt, which is column b; instead of being divided by five, they are dividted by 6.666667 (a.k.a. 20 divided by 3). You can go here to get a passer’s rating by entering his statistics.
Cutler’s rating is 86.0 by the NFL standard. He would have an 81.8 rating in the AFL and a 135.2 rating in the college ranks. In other words — don’t be fooled by those otherworldly ratings you often see for passers coming out for the draft. Makes me think that next year I should start calculating the draft-eligible quarterbacks’ numbers by the NFL rating for a better read on their work.
… and these are the numbers for Elway in his first 11 starts (which means a relief effort against Seattle in 1983 is not included in this sample set) …
JOHN ELWAY, 1983-84
ATT.: 259
COMP.: 123
PCT.: 47.5
YDS.: 1,656
TD: 7
INT: 15
RATE: 53.2
I’m consciously trying to stray from the Elway comparisons on Broncos quarterbacks … that’s why I didn’t mention him. It wasn’t fair to Brian Griese; it wasn’t fair to Jake Plummer; it isn’t fair to Cutler. (Also, every quarterback on the list made his starting debut AFTER Elway burst onto the scene at Pittsburgh on the first Sunday of September 1983).
Gotta run … back in a couple of hours or so.
Very good one, I like to see Cutler’s numbers against the great 83′ QB class
Let’s not forget that the game today is far different from the 80′s and even the 90′s. Most teams were run oriented until recently. Now more than a couple of 4,000 yard seasons are considered the norm where a decade ago they were considered freakish years!
To Broncfalls, I’m glad I can agree with someone around here about Cutler. Some people are just not giving this kid loaded with talent enough credit. No one is Hall of Fame material in their first 11 games… yes there are some great signs of Cutler playing his best the way he knows how but he’s got years to go before he can be put in the same sentence as that’s kid’s gonna be a Hall of Famer. No one thought Elway would be after losing all those Superbowls but he persevered and he definitely had a fan base that stuck with him and didn’t desert him b/c he had one crappy game. Every QB, actually every football player at some point as a real bad game. But I can see it in Cutler that he wants to win and not just win he wants to earn it. He along with the rest of us wants to not only win but to play exceptionally well to get there. Winning is great but how you play the game can effect if you’re going to win. How you play the game is just as important as winning. Not totally sure what my point with all this is other than to not turn your back on Cutler. If we have faith in him, he’ll have faith in himself which will bring out a great game from him.
I love you Cutler — you rock!!! I’m totally ready for some Monday Night Football.
GOOOOOOOOOOO BRONCOS!
No question Jay’s the man for the job and the good news is =>he is just getting started. As for tonights game I think the comparison that comes to my mind is Farve as a “nearly” retired QB is having one of his best years somewhat reminds me of Elway winning a couple of SBs and then retiring at a similar age. Let’s face no matter who you are or what team you support Farve commands the respect of fans everywhere. Having said that it’s just too bad he faces a defeat tonight in Denver at the hands of our young QB Andrew so nicely compared him to. Should be a great game. GO BRONCOS
Great article!…and keep up the good work Jay, you are not only my favorite NFL QB..you are also doing a great job for my fantasy team!
Good Luck Tonight… and GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To all my Bronco CRAZIES!
SHAKE THAT STADIUM!!!!
CUT SAM ADAMS,CUTLER AND BATES
TRADE PLUMMER AGAIN
John Bronco your post makes no sense.. especially the cut Cutler part.. he is doing his part and he will only get better.. GO BRONCOS!!!!
2007 IS OVER FOR BRONCOS , TRADE A NEW HEAD COACH
Hey Mason! I think Cutler is a great QB who is still learning. He improves every week. Even though the Broncos lost on Monday night, Cutler showed so much improvement. He did not throw one interception. Not to mention, he has so much talent, he just needs time to learn. I think he is doing very well.
Don’t list to these “fake fans” who say Cutler needs to go or Shanahan needs to go. They obviously do not know the team. These people are ignorant and make very STUPID comments.
They are so stupid that they fail to realize Denver is dealing witth the Deaths of Darrent Williams and Nash. They are also dealing with all of the injuries.
If Cutler is no good and Shanahan needs to go, why have the Broncos games been close excluding the San Diego game. Every game other than the San Diego game have been extremely close.
Besides, these “fake fans’ are complaining about Cutler and Shanahan, well if they want to talk all of this crap let them go be the QB or head coach so the world can see how BAD these stupid people are.
Pay NO Attention to the stupid comments of stupid fake fans. The True fans know how good Cutler and the whole team is including Shanahan.
After all, every team has a bad game or set of games.
Good Luck to the Broncos this weeknd against Detroit.
Go Broncos!!!!!
Cutler is the best QB for Denver since Elway!!!
Shanahan is the best Coach for Denver!!!!
SHANAHAN DECIA LO MISMO DE GRIESE , QUE ERA LA OCTAVA MARAVILLA Y AL FINAL LO TUVO QUE CAMBIAR. ES LA MISMA HISTORIA DE MEDIOCRIDAD
Hi fans,
I did a thread comparing Jay To Elways first 11 games, and when Jay’s numbers proved so superior, I thought they were going to try to throw me off the boards. People got mad! Here is the article, it surprisingly created quite a stir.
Elway-Cutler 11 Game Stage Comparison
Cutler Is Better Than Elway At This Stage
Ok, lets look at Elways first 11 games, way back in 1983
TD…Int…Cmp..Att…cmp…..Pyds… …..Rsh…..Yds……T
7……14…123..259….47%…1663 …….28……..146……1
Ok all you doubters, here are the stats for Jays first 11 games…
TD…Int…Cmp…Att…cmp…..Pyds. …Rsh….Yds…Td
16….13…201…318….63%…2407 ….28……92…..1
Ok over their first 11 games Jay has 16 TDS to Elway’s 7. Thats 9 more TDS and 1 less Interception.. am I getting through yet???
Elway completed 123 out of 259 attempts for a 47% completion…
Jay competed 201 out of 318 attempts for a 63% completion!
Elway passed for 1663 yds at this stage (11 games)
Jay passed for 2407 yds at this stage.(11 games) Thats 744 more yds thru 11 games which equals 67 yds more per game for Jay!
Which projected 16 games equals 1082 more yds for a 16 game season!
Elway rushed 28 times for 128 yds. A solid 5.21 yds per carry. avg 11.63 yds a game. 11.63 times a 16 game season comes to 186.08 yds.
Jay C rushed 28 times also for 92 yds. which is 3.28 yds per carry. avg 8.36 yds a games. Lets see, thats a whopping 3 yds more per game for Elway!
8.36 times a 16 game season comes to 133.76 yds. That equals 52.32 more yds for the season rushing for Elway. Keep in mind Jay projects 1082 more pass yards than Elway for the season(comparing them at this stage) 1082 minus 52.32 equals 1029.68 more yards of offensive production for Jay!
Here is the url to check it out yourself if you are able to see and function with all the screaming and crying that is going on right now by some disbelievers…The truth will set you free!
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
Yes Elway played for different coaches and at different times, and with different team mates, and against different teams, and with different offenses, and with different uniforms at times, and with different fans in the stands, and the internet wasn’t so popular back then, and there were different presidents, and not many people had cell phones, and nobody knew what an ATM was back in 83. Nonetheless, I hereby contend what I originally stated at the beginning of this thread. All Things Considered…
CUTLER IS BETTER THAN ELWAY AT THIS STAGE
ELWAY IS BETTER THAN CUTLER FOREVER
JUST NOT AT THIS STAGE
I believe that Cutler will be an excellent QB but comparisons beyond ten years give IMO very misleading information.
Since the evolution of the “West Coast offense”, the passing game has changed significantly. Today is the age of the short to intermediate range pass and let the receiver get yards after catch. It is a time of low risk passing. The receiver has an unimpeaded route after the first five yards and seldom is called for offensive pass interference. The rules also protect the QB in the pocket and give his blockers much more lee way in protecting him. He will have more time and less distractions while in the pocket. Today’s quarterback will certainly have a higher completion average, less turnovers (not airing it out downfield and less pressure), and, therefore, a higher passer rating.
The comparisions that are drawn between ’80s and ’90s QB numbers though entertaining show a distorted and invalid picture.
What you say makes sense Dean.. but I must add that JC has no problem with airing out the ball.. in fact he is alot of fun to watch!.. as far as time in the pocket, he often had none of it while playing in the SEC..
GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sports Illustrated
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article, but it sounds interesting